The Canadian government recently announced a significant adjustment to its immigration targets, planning a 20% reduction in admissions for both permanent and temporary residents. This decision is part of an effort to recalibrate immigration policy in response to evolving economic conditions and public sentiment.
Adjusted Permanent Resident Targets
In its latest Immigration Levels Plan, released on October 24, Canada laid out revised targets for permanent resident admissions over the next three years:
- 2025: 395,000 admissions, reduced from the original target of 485,000 for 2024 and a previously announced 500,000 in the 2024-2026 plan.
- 2026: 380,000 admissions, down from the previous target of 500,000.
- 2027: 365,000 admissions.
Though overall immigration numbers are being lowered, the government aims to increase the focus on economic immigration, viewing this category as essential for supporting Canada’s economic growth. In 2025, economic immigration targets have been trimmed by 17%, from 281,000 to 232,000. A substantial portion—over 40%—of these economic immigrants are expected to be selected from Canada’s temporary resident population.
The government’s breakdown of permanent resident admissions for 2025 to 2027 is as follows:
| Immigration Category | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total PR admissions and ranges | 395,000 (367,000 – 436,000) | 380,000 (352,000 – 416,000) | 365,000 (338,000 – 401,000) |
| French-speaking admissions outside Quebec | 8.5% (29,325) | 9.5% (31,350) | 10% (31,500) |
| Economic Immigration | 232,150 (215,000 – 256,000) | 229,750 (214,000 – 249,000) | 225,350 (207,000 – 246,000) |
| Family Reunification | 94,500 (88,500 – 102,000) | 88,000 (82,000 – 96,000) | 81,000 (77,000 – 89,000) |
| Refugees, Protected Persons, Humanitarian and Compassionate, and Other | 68,350 (63,500 – 78,000) | 62,250 (56,000 – 71,000) | 58,650 (54,000 – 66,000) |
Notably, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau led this announcement, marking a departure from the typical approach where the Immigration Minister handles such updates. In his statement, Trudeau highlighted the value of Canadian immigration, noting that it has contributed to making Canada’s economy “the envy of the world,” while reaffirming Canada’s dedication to supporting a balanced immigration program.
Scaling Back of Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)
The Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) has seen substantial reductions in target admissions, signaling a pivot in the federal government’s immigration priorities. Adjustments include:
- 2025: 55,000 admissions, down from last year’s target of 110,000 for 2024 and 120,000 for 2025.
- 2026: 55,000 admissions, reduced from the prior target of 120,000.
- 2027: 55,000 admissions.
This reduction marks a significant shift in Canada’s immigration strategy, potentially altering the flow of new residents into various provinces.
Increase in Federal High-Skilled Economic Immigration
In contrast to the PNP reductions, the federal government is increasing targets for high-skilled economic immigration through programs managed by Express Entry. The updated goals include:
- 2025: 124,680 admissions, up from the previous target of 110,770.
- 2026: 123,230 admissions, up from the former 117,500.
- 2027: 118,730 admissions.
This increase underscores Canada’s continued focus on attracting skilled workers who can help meet economic needs and offset labor shortages.
Boost in French-speaking Immigrants Outside Quebec
The federal government is also advancing its commitment to boost French-speaking immigration outside Quebec, setting increased targets for the coming years:
- 2025: 8.5%
- 2026: 9.5%
- 2027: 10%
New Temporary Resident Levels
For the first time, Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan includes targets for temporary residents, aimed at reducing temporary resident levels to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2026. This goal follows a surge in changes affecting Canada’s temporary resident system, specifically in work and study permits. The proposed breakdown of temporary resident admissions is as follows:
| Temporary Resident (TR) Category | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total TR Arrivals and Ranges | 673,650 (604,900 – 742,400) | 516,600 (435,250 – 597,950) | 543,600 (472,900 – 614,250) |
| Workers | 367,750 | 210,700 | 237,700 |
| Students | 305,900 | 305,900 | 305,900 |
The significant reduction in work permits in 2026 is attributed to cuts in the International Mobility Program (IMP), which will see its target drop from 285,750 in 2025 to 128,700 in 2026. Work permits issued through the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) will remain constant at 82,000 over the next three years.
Canada’s government expects a reduction of approximately 445,000 temporary residents in 2025, followed by a similar decrease in 2026, as many temporary residents transition to permanent residence or have their permits expire.
2024 Cap on Study Permits and Other Temporary Resident Reforms
To manage Canada’s growing foreign student population, the government implemented the first-ever cap on study permit applications, limiting new study permits to 360,000 annually. Initially introduced as a two-year measure, the cap has since been made permanent. This move aims to control the rising numbers of foreign nationals on study permits and their eligibility for Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWPs).
In 2024, the government introduced additional eligibility criteria for PGWPs, such as limiting permits to graduates in high-demand fields and setting language requirements. Spousal open work permits also saw changes, restricting eligibility to spouses of in-demand workers.
Recent TFWP Reforms
Recent reforms to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) focus on preventing misuse. Earlier in 2024, the government suspended labor market impact assessments (LMIAs) for the TFWP low-wage stream in Montreal and other regions with unemployment rates above 6%. TFWP work permit durations were also reduced to one year for the low-wage stream.
Further Reductions in Study Permits, PGWPs, and Spousal Work Permits
On September 18, Immigration Minister Sean Fraser announced a series of changes expected to result in the following decreases over the next three years:
- 300,000 fewer study permits
- 175,000 fewer PGWPs
- 150,000 fewer spousal open work permits
Changes to these programs aim to align temporary permits with in-demand job categories and include eligibility updates based on job requirements and program length.
Overview of the Immigration Levels Plan
The Immigration Levels Plan is Canada’s key document for outlining annual immigration targets, including specific goals for various categories. While the plan’s first-year targets are typically fixed, those for subsequent years remain provisional, providing flexibility to respond to economic and social factors. Despite recent reductions, the 2025 targets are still higher than Canada’s pre-pandemic immigration levels.
Policy Rationale
Immigration Minister Fraser described the changes as a balanced, “middle of the road” approach. Trudeau echoed this sentiment, acknowledging the government’s focus on addressing both economic goals and voter concerns.